Overused & Under-understood MOS

MOS, Margin Of Safety,
is one of the key points in Benny G’s Intelligent Investor.
And hence, the heart of Value Investment.

However, just as the term Value Investor, the MOS is ubiquitous and overused.
It is common to see people mentioning MOS as if it is the magic word in the Investment.

It is overused and under-understood (let’s pretend such word exists). (:

Let me try (so I can say, at least I’ve tried) to put our understanding in perspective, shall we?


2016 year-end Notes

I have just concluded my investment return in 2016.
The return for 2016 is 61% while IDX returns 16% (just a flip over) (:

I’d remind the readers not to read too much into 1-year result and rather look at longer term horizon, at least 5-10 years cycle.

As noted in previous post, the extraordinary return of 2016 was mainly due to CTRP. Read this for details

By and large, the result is even better than my expectation due to followings:

  1. APLN is now over 50% of my total shares cost.
    From my first purchase price of Rp290, APLN has been sliding down to Rp210.
    That’s over 30% down since then. However, it was pleasantly surprising that my APLN is currently down by a lesser 15%.
    I guess I must have been picking up the falling knife faster than I’ve expected.
    This is somehow like a Christmas gift and I do hope it keeps up till my cash is exhausted.

    Hint to sellers: I am still holding 35% of cash in my total portfolio.

    In other words, my shotgun is still pretty much loaded.
    Come what may.

on Portfolio Changes

Generally I am a very consistent person.
I love sustainability.
I prefer evolution (gradual changes) than revolution (extreme changes).

However, as I have mentioned (and if you pay attention), last year my return was about -30% (minus 30%) and this year, as per end October, is about +70%.

The wind of change is rather extreme.
What could have explained the changes? here are some lights:

  1. CTRP occupied over 70% of my total portfolio by cost as at the beginning of this year.
    Due to the merger, I have divested about 60-70% of CTRP at the price of Rp700-800.Why sell? Simply because when I asked myself, do I want to buy CTRA at current price of around Rp 1400? the answer is simply no.

    CTRA is a lot more complicated to analyse and valuate due to the big amount of projects and especially the JV projects (need to do lots of guesswork).

APLN – unloved & unvalued?

Agung Podomoro Land or APLN, is a Property Company, arguably the Superblock concept founder and the King of Apartments.

The strings of extraordinary saga accompany his rise or fall, which below highlights:

  • Podomoro city Jakarta – a slum area turned into flourishing superblock after series of conflicts and struggles, either in court or socially.
  • Greenbay Pluit – a muddy fishing area converted to large superblock with marina view (or so the wishful thinking), controversies are part of its story.
  • Karawang Industrial land – acquired from SAMP, a company with lawsuits and controversies with various parties on land conflict.
  • Pluit City – the biggest controversy and the cause of downfall of the last CEO.