Value Investment

Overused & Under-understood MOS

MOS, Margin Of Safety,
is one of the key points in Benny G’s Intelligent Investor.
And hence, the heart of Value Investment.

However, just as the term Value Investor, the MOS is ubiquitous and overused.
It is common to see people mentioning MOS as if it is the magic word in the Investment.

It is overused and under-understood (let’s pretend such word exists). (:

Let me try (so I can say, at least I’ve tried) to put our understanding in perspective, shall we?


Against the crowd – LPCK

My investment process is pretty simple but not easy to follow.
The hardest part is likely to be against the crowd.

Buy when others are Selling.
Sell when others are Buying.

Sounds like déjà vu? (:
To me, sound investment principle should stand its ground against the time.
Time may be different, strong investment principle remains the same.

This week, Indonesia main stock index (IHSG) has reached another record high.
By and large, it shows a rather grossly expensive market.
The Indonesia potential is there (as have been and always) and Mr. Market for once has recognised that and much more.

The expectation is (overly) high and with it, the risk of falling short.

It is not unlike the potential young footballer scored a goal in SEA Games and suddenly everyone expected him to bring Indonesia to World cup glory.
We can guess how this story ends. (more…)

APLN – unloved & unvalued?

Agung Podomoro Land or APLN, is a Property Company, arguably the Superblock concept founder and the King of Apartments.

The strings of extraordinary saga accompany his rise or fall, which below highlights:

  • Podomoro city Jakarta – a slum area turned into flourishing superblock after series of conflicts and struggles, either in court or socially.
  • Greenbay Pluit – a muddy fishing area converted to large superblock with marina view (or so the wishful thinking), controversies are part of its story.
  • Karawang Industrial land – acquired from SAMP, a company with lawsuits and controversies with various parties on land conflict.
  • Pluit City – the biggest controversy and the cause of downfall of the last CEO.


Ciputra Merger, the moment of truth

Within the same month the foresight analysis was posted,  read this for details.
The moment of truth came early this morning.

Ciputra announced the merger proposal today, 24th Oct 2016.
The most (or only) important point of the proposal is the share conversion:
* 1 CTRS share will get 2.13 CTRA shares.
* 1 CTRP share will get 0.54 CTRA shares.

Based on the above share conversion, see below table for the potential return:ctrp-merger_potential_return
In short, it means that if Market is logical, you may expect the return of 25% for CTRS & 33% for CTRP, based on the foresight analysis.